He believes a revived Russian Empire will reclaim its "near abroad" in the short term but will self-destruct some time in the 2020's because of demographic problems, leaving a vacuum that, he predicts, will be filled by an eastern bloc in Europe led by Poland (the largest and most energetic of the eastern European states), and by Turkey, a nation well-positioned to dominate southern Russia and its environs, along with the eastern Mediterranean and much of the Near East. Russia, he adds, though now in the throes of a revanchist resurgence under Putin will not be able to sustain this because of its radical population decline and lack of new inflows of people. America, he says, has won because America is in a position of global dominance and so doesn't need to defeat its enemies. Regarding current events, he suggests that the American war with the Jihadists already looks to be over. Their economies will be correspondingly less robust, he argues, too. The population of these nations will continue to be disproportionately older, as well, as they experience a more rapid population drop-off than in many other parts of the world, including North America. Western European nations (England, France, Germany, etc.) are already in advanced decline, he argues, their culture one of cynicism and relativism. Given this he suggests that:ġ) Global Warming, though in his view real and manmade (as claimed by its proponents), will start to ease because demand will drop of its own accord andĢ) The energy crisis will diminish because of the demand drop as well.Īs populations trend downward, population replenishment will become the major problem for nation states in this century. In urban societies, larger numbers of children, he reminds us, are a burden on their parents, not a boon.
Still, he suggests, other nations and peoples will not be able to help but dislike, and align themselves against, us anymore than we can help acting in our own interests.īeginning with the trend of globalization he argues that, as the world modernizes, the incentive to procreate will continue to diminish resulting in a significant downturn in world populations. Because America is still in its awkward but maturing stage, we cannot help but blunder about, notes Friedman, but we are big enough and robust enough to make lots of mistakes without hurting our interests in any serious way.
In fact, he suggests the constant American concern about its own decline is really symptomatic of a still uncertain adolescent rather than a more mature nation. is really just coming into its own and will likely grow in power and global dominance over the next 100 years. seems to proceed in 20 year and 50 year cycles, Friedman tells us that, far from being in decline, the U.S. While it's unlikely most of us will be around to judge the accuracy of Friedman's predictions they make for interesting reading and sometimes surprising twists on current expectations. įuturist and CEO of Stratfor, a private intelligence firm, George Friedman looks out over the new century to discern the long term trends which will shape events for years to come. You can read all of George's current thoughts and analysis by visiting his website. He also founded the geopolitical intelligence consulting firm Stratfor in 1996 and left Stratfor in 2015 to start Geopolitical Futures. George’s unmatched analysis in geopolitics has led him to regularly brief military organizations and consult for Fortune 100 executives. His books have been translated into over 20 languages.ĭetermined to discover those principles of logic that govern the world, George received his PhD in government from Cornell University, granting him access to some of the most brilliant thinkers in the field… in the US and across the globe. Other of Friedman’s best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War and The Intelligence Edge. George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the Founder and Chairman of Geopolitical Futures, an online publication that analyzes and predicts the international system.įriedman is a New York Times bestselling author and his most popular book, The Next 100 Years (2009) is kept alive by the prescience of its geopolitical predictions as they unfold in many countries.
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